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Projecting Meat and Cereals Demand for China Based on a Meta-Analysis of Income Elasticities

De Zhou (), Xiaohua Yu (), David G. Abler and Danhong Chen

No 168528, GlobalFood Discussion Papers from Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development

Abstract: There are many projections for China’s food demand, and the projection results differ significantly from each other. Different values for income elasticities could be a major reason. This study projects meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of the income elasticity estimates using a collection of 143 and 240 income elasticity estimates for cereals and meat products, respectively, from 36 primary studies. We find that income elasticities for most cereals (general cereals, rice, and coarse grains) and all meat products (general meat, pork, poultry, beef & mutton) tend to decline as per capita income increases, except for wheat, which increases. Taking this into account, differences between consumption projections based on time-varying income elasticities and values based on constant elasticities are substantial in quantities and increase over time.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cna and nep-tra
Date: 2014-05
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