HIGH YIELD GENETICALLY MODIFIED WHEAT IN GERMANY: SOCIO ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF ITS POTENTIAL

Philipp Wree and Johannes Sauer

No 209212, 55th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 23-25, 2015 from German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA)

Abstract: High Yield Genetically Modified Wheat (HOSUT) HOSUT lines are an innovation in wheat breeding based on biotechnology with an incremental yield potential of ca. 28% compared to conventional wheat varieties. We apply the real option concept of Maximum Incremental Social Tolerable Irreversible Costs (MISTICs) to do an ex-ante assessment of the socioeconomic potential of HOSUT lines for Germany. We analyze the cost and benefits to farmer and society within two scenarios. Our results of our scenario calculation indicate that not authorizing HOSUT lines is correct if German society values the possible total irreversible costs of this technology to be between €12.04 and €10.02 per citizen or more.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-ino
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:gewi15:209212

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.209212

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