The Impact of Free Trade Agreements on International Agricultural Trade: A Gravity Application on the Dairy Product Trade and the ASEAN-China-FTA

Henning Schaak

No 211619, 55th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 23-25, 2015 from German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA)

Abstract: This paper uses a gravity model to analyse the impact of the ASEAN-China-FTA on the international trade of dairy products. It uses a multinomial PML estimator with country fixed effects and a suitable framework to differentiate between trade creation and trade diversion effects in terms of imports and exports. The used dataset contains disaggregated data for 36 countries, including the ASEAN member countries, China and the 25 largest dairy exporting countries from 1995 until 2013. The dataset contains data on the three SITC dairy product groups as well as their aggregate. The estimates of the model include significant values for all framework effects. They indicate that there are trade creation, import diversion and export diversion effects for all four commodity groups. The estimated overall net trade effect is negative. Hence the current implementation of the FTA should be critically evaluated with respect to dairy products.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-pke and nep-sea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:gewi15:211619

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.211619

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