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Identifying GM crops for cultivation in the EU through a Delphi forecasting

Ian McFarlane, Philip Jones, Julian Park and Richard Tranter

No 211479, GMCC-15: Seventh GMCC, November 17-20, 2015, Amsterdam, the Netherlands from International Conference on Coexistence between Genetically Modified (GM) and non-GM based Agricultural Supply Chains (GMCC)

Abstract: This paper reports the design and implementation of a Delphi forecasting exercise carried out to identify crop traits that could feasibly be introduced to the advantage of European arable farmers, and for the general benefit of members of the public in EU member states. An expert stakeholder panel was recruited, and in the first round of the consultation, asked for opinions regarding a number of scenarios concerning the availability of GM events, and also scenarios that envisage novel crops developed using advanced technology that is not classified as GM. In a second round of consultation, panel members were asked to comment anonymously on opinions elicited in the first phase. Preliminary results indicate that crops with input traits most likely to become available in EU before 2025 are HTIR maize, HT sugarbeet and HT soybean; these crops are already widely adopted outside Europe. The crops with output traits most likely to become available are winter-sown varieties of rape with reduced saturated fats, spring varieties of which are already available outside EU (notably Canadian Canola).

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11
Date: 2015-11
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:gmcc15:211479

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.211479

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