Calibration of an Agricultural Sector Model for the Region Khorezm (Uzbekistan) based on Survey Data

Marc Mueller and Nodir Djanibekov

No 50354, 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China from International Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: The paper describes the approach used for the calibration of a price-endogenous programming model, developed for the agricultural sector of the region Khorezm in Uzbekistan. Extensive datasets from farm surveys were used to parameterize the model, which nevertheless tended to over-specialization and failed in general to replicate the observed levels of primal model variables. Calibration of the model with “Positive Mathematical Programming” approaches was not satisfying as the additional cost terms introduced to replicate the observed situation were in many cases not plausible and deviated substantially from any available information on cost structure of the agricultural production activities in the study region. After revising the survey data it became obvious that the variances of technical parameters of the model, namely the input coefficients, were significantly larger than any other used set of information. Consequently, instead of introducing additional cost terms, we decided to estimate the technology parameters, such that the observed situation was replicated and the Kuhn-Tucker conditions for an optimum in this point were fulfilled. The estimation was based on a cross entropy approach. The needed support points and prior distributions of the technology coefficients and dual values were drawn from survey data and additional sources of information, such as expert interviews. The result is a calibrated agricultural sector model with a technology representation that was derived by systematical exploitation of relevant data sources for the study region.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/50354/files/533.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iaae09:50354

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.50354

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China from International Association of Agricultural Economists Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().