Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: the role of expectation schemes

Fabienne Femenia and Gohin Alexandre

No 51665, 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China from International Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: The highly disputed effects of agricultural trade liberalisation are mostly simulated with static models. Our main objective in this paper is to evaluate the robustness of the static simulation results to the consistent modelling of dynamic behaviours and to the linked specification of price/return expectations. Focusing on a complete trade liberalisation scenario of arable crop markets by developed countries, we find that available static results are quite robust to dynamic specifications and to most expectation schemes. Endogenous market fluctuations due to expectation errors may appear following trade liberalisation. These fluctuations are nevertheless limited by the many feedback effects revealed by our general equilibrium framework.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: the role of expectation schemes (2012)
Journal Article: Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: The role of expectation schemes (2011)
Working Paper: Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: the role of expectation schemes (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iaae09:51665

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.51665

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