THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTH AFRICA

James S. Juana, Kenneth M. Strzepek and Johann Kirsten

No 51927, 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China from International Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: Most of the climate change models for South Africa predict a reduction in freshwater availability by 2050, which implies that water availability for sectoral production activities is expected to decline. This decline has an impact on sectoral output, value added and households’ welfare. Using a computable general equilibrium approach, this study investigates the possible impact of global change on households’ welfare. The simulation results show that water scarcity due to global change can potentially lead to a general deterioration in households’ welfare. The poor households, whose incomes are adversely impacted, are the most vulnerable to the consequences of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa. This vulnerability can only be reduced if welfare policies that maintain food consumption levels for the least and low-income households are implemented

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Productivity Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iaae09:51927

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.51927

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