What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments

Pilar Martinez, Maria Blanco, Benjamin Van Doorslaer, Fabien Ramos and Lucian Stanca

No 212230, 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy from International Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compare a reference scenario for 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results show that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cmp and nep-env
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iaae15:212230

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212230

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