Effects of weather shocks on wheat prices in Central Asia

Alisher Mirzabaev and Daniel Tsegai

No 212466, 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy from International Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: Higher weather volatility may be reflected in higher incidences of weather shocks. Weather shocks could potentially affect the supply of agricultural commodities and their prices. In this study, the effects of weather shocks on agricultural commodity prices in Central Asia are investigated at the provincial scale using monthly data for the period of 2000-2010. The study uses an estimation method, where the idiosyncratic components of the variables are analyzed using Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) panel regression in the presence of cross-sectional dependence and serial autocorrelation. The analysis indicates that weather volatility and, especially, the fluctuations in the availability of irrigation water have statistically significant effects on wheat prices in Central Asia. Weather shocks, involving lower than usual temperatures and precipitation amounts, could create favorable conditions for higher wheat prices in the region.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cis, nep-cwa and nep-env
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iaae15:212466

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212466

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