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Beyond mean rainfall and temperature changes: distributional effects of stochastic yield variability in the Sudan

H. Grethe, Khalid Siddig (), D. Stepanyan, Tingju Zhu () and Manfred Wiebelt ()

No 275903, 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia from International Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: Several environmental changes have encountered the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, various floods, rainfall variability and concurrent droughts (USAID, 2016). This study do not only look at the economywide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies and various other environmental assessments to propose possible interventions. We feed the climate forcing as well as water demand and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress and a DSSAT1 all connected to IMPACT2 model. The outcomes are annual crop yield (ton/hectare) and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The distributional effects of such changes are assessed using a single country dynamic CGE3 model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yield until 2050. Results reveal that while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability cost the Sudan accumulatively (2018-2050) US$ 109.8 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.1 billion in GDP relative to no climate change scenario.

Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
Date: 2018-07
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