Agricultural commodity market responses to extreme agroclimatic events

T. Chatzopoulos, Ignacio Perez Dominguez (), M. Zampieri and A. Toreti

No 276039, 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia from International Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: Economic simulation models typically assume ‘normal’ growing conditions in eliciting agricultural market projections, contain no explicit parameterization of climate extremes on the supply side, and confound multifarious sources of historical yield fluctuation in harvest-failure scenarios. In this paper we augment a partial equilibrium model of global agriculture with a recently developed compound indicator of agroclimatic stress. We perform a multi-scenario analysis where the most extreme temperature and soilmoisture anomalies of the last decades, both negative and positive, recur in the near future. Our results indicate that extreme agroclimatic conditions at the regional level may have significant impacts both on domestic and international wheat and maize markets.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21
Date: 2018-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-rmg
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iaae18:276039

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.276039

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