Climate Smart Pest Management

Liang Lu and L. Elbakidze

No 277402, 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia from International Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: One of the consequences of projected climatic changes is potentially increase in frequency and intensity of regional agricultural pest outbreaks. This requires new way of analytical thinking, pest management practice, and up-to-date regulation, which we call climate smart pest management. This paper provides an integrated stochastic dynamic framework to examines the use of weather and pest infestation forecasts in agricultural pest management. First, we analytically demonstrate the role of the correlation between weather and pest infestation forecast in pest management using a stochastic optimal control framework. Next, using stochastic dynamic programming we empirically simulate optimal pest management trajectory taking into account correlation between weather and pest population predictions. The empirical case study results illustrate our theoretical inferences and show that 1. Due to faster pest infestation under climate change, farmers are forced to spray earlier in the growing season so that severe cumulative future damage on the biomass is prevented. 2. Pea production profit in the Palouse area of northern Idaho and eastern Washington can be increased by 8.5% if pea aphid management accounts for potential correlation between weather and aphid forecast errors. Acknowledgement :

Keywords: Environmental; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/277402/files/1974.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Climate Smart Pest Management (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iaae18:277402

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.277402

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia from International Association of Agricultural Economists Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().