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Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach

Maria Belyaeva and Raushan Bokusheva

No 253788, IAMO Discussion Papers from Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO)

Abstract: We conduct an examination of the climate effect to analyze the historical dependence of grain production on temperatures and precipitation levels, and project this dependence to estimate the productivity of different grain types in the mid- and long-terms, given four greenhouse gas concentration pathways. We find that altering temperatures have an equivocal effect on agriculture. The most productive zones of the southern black soil belt is projected to face considerable declines in yields, due to insufficient precipitation levels and high probability of heat waves during the summer vegetation period. The northern part, on the contrary, can experience increases in productivity as a result of milder and drier winters and warmer springs.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cis and nep-env
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:iamodp:253788

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.253788

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