Thünen-Baseline 2017 – 2027: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland

Frank Offermann, Martin Banse (), Florian Freund, Marlen Haß, Peter Kreins, Verena Laquai, Bernhard Osterburg, Janine Pelikan, Claus Rösemann and Petra Salamon

No 267947, Thünen Report from Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries

Abstract: This report presents selected results of the Thünen Baseline 2017 – 2027 as well as the assumptions upon which these results are based. The Thünen Baseline is established using and combining several models of the Thünen model network. The baseline assumes a continuation of the current policy framework and the implementation of already decided policy changes. This report describes the outcome of model projections of agricultural trade, prices, production, income and environmental impacts. The presentation focuses on the development of the German agricultural sector compared to the base period 2014 - 2016. In the Thünen Baseline 2017 - 2027, sluggish demand on world agricultural markets in combination with a stronger Euro implies that the real prices of most agricultural commodities will decline. One exception is dairy products, where strong export demand supports the producer price for milk in Germany. As a consequence, the income of many farms is projected to be lower than in the base period 2014-2016. However, a sensitivity analysis based on a scenario which assumes a depreciation of the Euro highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors depend on macroeconomic developments.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 116 p.
Date: 2018-02-07
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jhimwo:267947

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.267947

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