Thünen-Baseline 2020 – 2030: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland

Marlen Haß, Martin Banse, Claus Deblitz, Florian Freund, Inna Geibel, Alexander Gocht, Peter Kreins, Verena Laquai, Frank Offermann, Bernhard Osterburg, Janine Pelikan, Jörg Rieger, Claus Rösemann, Petra Salamon, Maximilian Zinnbauer and Max-Emanuel Zirngibl

No 307465, Thünen Report from Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries

Abstract: This report presents selected results of the Thünen-Baseline 2020-2030 as well as the assumptions underlying the projections. The Thünen-Baseline describes the expected developments of agricultural markets under given macro-economic conditions assuming no change in the current policy framework. Projections are based on the data and information available in February 2020. The report includes projection results on agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental effects. The presentation of the results focuses mainly on the developments of the German agricultural sector up to the year 2030 compared to the average of the base period 2017-2019. With regard to the crops sector results show that oilseed cultivation is likely to be expanded by 2030. This is because the oilseed sector becomes more competitive relative to grains driven by a stronger increase in yields as well as prices. For the meat sector, higher environmental and animal welfare standards suggest that the growth in production observed over the past decades is likely to slow down, especially in the pigmeat sector, while poultry meat production is expected to still grow slightly over the projection period. Furthermore, stable milk prices and dairy herd populations combined with a further increase in milk yield are likely to result in a moderate increase in milk deliveries over the projection period. The average real income of agricultural farms is expected to decline slightly over the projection period. However, in 2030 agricultural farms still achieve an income equal to the average level observed over the last ten years.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 146
Date: 2020-11-18
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https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/307465/files/dn062723.pdf (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: Thünen-Baseline 2020 - 2030: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jhimwo:307465

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.307465

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