Thünen-Baseline 2022 – 2032: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland

Marlen Haß, Claus Deblitz, Florian Freund, Peter Kreins, Verena Laquai, Frank Offermann, Janine Pelikan, Viktoriya Sturm, Johannes Wegmann, Thomas de Witte, Friedrich Wüstemann and Maximilian Zinnbauer

No 329579, Thünen Report from Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries

Abstract: This report presents selected results of the Thünen-Baseline 2022-2032 as well as the assumptions underlying the projections. The Thünen-Baseline describes the expected developments of agricultural markets under given macro-economic conditions assuming no change in the current policy framework. Projections are based on the data and information available in spring 2022. The effects of the Russia-Ukraine war are not taken into account. The report includes projection results on agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental effects. The presentation of the results focuses mainly on the developments of the German agricultural sector up to the year 2032 compared to the average of the base period 2018-2020. In the crop sector, results show that oilseed cultivation is likely to be expanded by 2032. This is because the oilseed sector becomes more competitive relative to grains driven by a stronger increase in yields as well as prices. In the meat sector, the decline in production observed in recent years due to higher environmental and animal welfare standards as well as changing dietary habits is expected to continue, especially for pork, while poultry production will continue to grow slightly until 2032. Moreover, favorable price developments on the milk market combined with a further increase in milk yield are likely to result in a moderate increase in milk deliveries over the projection period. The average real income of agricultural farms is expected to decline. In 2032 the real income of agricultural farms is likely to be significantly below the average level observed over the last ten years.

Keywords: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: XVII, 62, A3-A34
Date: 2022-12-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-ger
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jhimwo:329579

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.329579

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