Mit Sojaanbau profitabel Fruchtfolgen erweitern?

Yelto Zimmer and Thies Böttcher

No 310167, Thünen Working Paper from Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries

Abstract: In recent years, the economic viability of established broad leaf crops has deteriorated, in some cases considerably -above all rapeseed and sugarbeet, for which important crop protection products are no longer available. Herbicide resistance is also increasing in cereals, so more diverse crop rotations -especially with summer crops -are of increasing importance. Against this background, the prospects for soybean cultivation in Germany are being investigated. As an additional leaf crop, soybeans could play an important role in crop rotations in the future -at least south of a line of the A2 highway. Where crop rotations need to be extended and soybeans are possible, they are superior to native legumes and offer opportunities as a sought-after GMO-free feed. Case studies were used to analyze the economic viability of soybeans compared to established crops in selected regions. In southern Germany, climatic and market conditions are already so positive that soybeans are economically attractive without subsidies. In the more northern regions, conditions are generally still somewhat worse, so that soybeans are often not yet competitive there. The potential of soybeans for a healthier crop rotation can only be realized on an area-wide basis if the framework conditions for cultivation improve. A major reason for the current low profitability of soybeans is the high seed cost of about 300 €/ha. Due to the lack of a farm-saved seed regulation as in cereals, farmers have to use certified seed. If they were allowed touse a portion of the harvest for sowing in the following year, variable costs would go down by about 150 €/ha or at least one third. In addition, transport distances to oil mills are a key challenge with the current low volumes. With the help of producer groups, regional harvest volumes could be increased and pooled. This would reduce transaction and transportation costs per ton, allowing higher farm gate prices for soybean growers. Temporary government support for producer groups -including intensified agronomic advice for farmers -could help generate critical mass for the market. Finally, the price potential of GMO-free soybeans has not yet been fully exploited. While imported non-GMO soybeans achieve a premium of about 100 €/t compared to GMO produce, these premiums for domestic commodities are usually about 50€/t below the calculated reference price. Therefore, rising prices and thus better profitability can be expected in the medium term.

Keywords: Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27
Date: 2021-03-26
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jhimwp:310167

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.310167

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