AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF ENSO (EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) ON GLOBAL CROP YIELDS

John Ferris ()

No 11741, Staff Paper Series from Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics

Abstract: Forecasts of global crop yields prior to planting have generally been single values, based entirely on past trends. Regression analysis testing a combination of data from ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) and ARMA models suggests that yield forecasting errors can be reduced, generating more normal distributions of these errors. Keywords: El Niño, ENSO, forecasting crop yields, long range weather forecasting, agricultural modeling, food security, risk management

Keywords: Crop; Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37
Date: 1999
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/11741/files/sp99-11.pdf (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF ENSO (EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) ON GLOBAL CROP YIELDS (1999)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:midasp:11741

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.11741

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