Futures Markets as Inverse Forecasters for Post-Harvest Wheat Prices

Robert S. Firch

No 285376, 1981-1999 Conference Archive from NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

Abstract: In a paper titled "Futures Markets as Inverse Forecasters of PostHarvest Prices for Storable Agricultural Commodities", Firch presented evidence from the study of cotton, soybean, and corn futures prices that strongly suggests that these futures markets are not only poor direct forecasters of prices over the planting to harvest period but that in fact market responses to the futures prices cause futures prices to move inversely with the forecast. This paper presents the results of a study of wheat futures prices and finds what appears to be substantial evidence supporting the inverse forecast hypothesis and indirectly the "paradox of the public forecast" hypothesis outlined in the earlier paper.

Keywords: Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1981-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:nc8191:285376

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285376

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