Robust Risk Management Strategies for U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Producers

Brian D. Adam and Kim Anderson

No 285634, 1981-1999 Conference Archive from NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

Abstract: Harvest-time marketing strategies are analyzed for hard red winter wheat producers. A total of 6,561 strategies are considered, including purchases and sales of put and call options and futures contracts, as well as cash market and storage activitest. The focus of the analysis is to identify strategies that are "robust" to uncertain price expeectations and imprecise specification of a producer's toerance for risk. It is assumed that a wheat producer uses the harvest-time futures price as a predcitor of November 30 furures price, but that there is no market-based predictor of basis. The analysis attempts to find strategies that are relatively insensitive to the amount basis changes from harvest to Novemver 30.

Keywords: Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:nc8191:285634

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285634

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