Forecasting performance of Storable and Non-Storable Commodities

Scott Daniel and Ted Schroeder

No 285760, 1981-1999 Conference Archive from NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between the futures price at the time of production/placement decision and the price at the time of the harvest/marketing decision for the storable commodities corn, soybeans, and wheat and non-storable commodities, fed cattle and hogs. Additionally, a model is employed to identify determinants of the error associated with the use of a springtime futures price as a forecast for the harvest period price of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Results indicate that the springtime futures price is a biased forecast for the harvest price of corn, soybeans, and wheat. However, the price forecast is an unbiased estimate for the price of cattle and hogs during the marketing period. The predictability of supply and demand estimates and the time period of the price forecast for the storable commodities are significantly related to the error associated with the forecast.

Keywords: Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:nc8191:285760

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285760

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