USING FUTURES PRICES TO FORECAST THE SEASON-AVERAGE U.S. CORN PRICES

Linwood Hoffman

No 19020, 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri from NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

Abstract: A model is developed using basis values (cash prices less futures), marketing weights, and a composite of monthly futures and cash prices to forecast the season-average U.S. corn farm price. Forecast accuracy measures include the absolute percentage error, mean absolute percentage error, squared error, and mean squared error. The futures model forecasts are compared to USDA's WASDE projections. No statistically significance difference was found between the futures model forecasts and the season-average price projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Futures model forecasts are reliable, and timely.

Keywords: Demand; and; Price; Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21
Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ncrfou:19020

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19020

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