Spring 2025 North Dakota Farm Income Outlook

Alejandro Plastina, Oranuch Wongpiyabovorn, Kyra Palange and Sandro Steinbach

No 358582, CAPTS Report from North Dakota State University

Abstract: This joint report from the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) and the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies (CAPTS) provides an updated forecast for North Dakota farm income in 2025 and a preliminary outlook for 2026. Using the RaFF Farm Income Model—calibrated with USDA administrative data and regional projections from FAPRI-MU—the analysis projects a 39% increase in North Dakota net farm income (NFI) in 2025, reaching $4.79 billion. The primary driver of this increase is a sharp rise in direct government payments, which more than offset a $1 billion decline in crop receipts and stable production expenses. Livestock receipts are expected to rise modestly, led by record cattle prices. In 2026, NFI is projected to fall by 48% as government payments return to typical levels and commodity receipts weaken further. These projections provide a benchmark for evaluating short-term income dynamics in the state’s farm economy under current policy and market conditions.

Keywords: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 6
Date: 2025-05-25
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ndsure:358582

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.358582

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