Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector

Vincent W. Yao and Brian Solboda

No 208159, 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 from Transportation Research Forum

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to develop a method for predicting fluctuations in the transportation sector using leading indicators. From twenty-five initial candidates, we select seven leading indicators using various screening techniques and modern time series models. A composite leading index is constructed and found to perform well in predicting their reference cycles. The leading index signals downturns in the transportation sector by 9 months and upturns by 6 months, on average. The former predicted the latest recession in transportation 20 months ahead. We also confirm the predictive contents of the CLI in relation to transportation growth cycles. These evaluation criteria ensure accurate forecasts of the general state of the transportation sector in a timely fashion.

Keywords: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18
Date: 2005-03
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/208159/files/2 ... tingCycles_paper.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ndtr05:208159

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.208159

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 from Transportation Research Forum
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().