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The Accuracy of Transit System Ridership Forecasts and Capital Cost Estimates

Matthew H. Hardy, Soogwan Doh, Junyang Yuan, Xin Zhou and Kenneth Button

No 207489, 50th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Portland, Oregon, March 16-18, 2009 from Transportation Research Forum

Abstract: In 1992, Pickrell published a seminal piece examining the accuracy of ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates for fixed-guideway transit systems in the US. His research created heated discussions in the transit industry regarding the ability of transit planners to properly plan largescale transit systems. Since then, evidence has arisen to suggest that ridership forecasting and capital cost estimation of both new transit systems and extensions to existing transit system has improved. However, no statistical analysis has been conducted of US transit systems to determine this. This research fills this gap in the literature by examining 47 fixed-guideway transit projects planned in the US between 1972 and 2005 to see whether or not a Pickrell Effect can be observed whereby ridership forecasting and capital cost estimations improved due to Pickrell’s work.

Keywords: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 13
Date: 2009-03
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http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/207489/files/20 ... pForecasts_paper.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: THE ACCURACY OF TRANSIT SYSTEM RIDERSHIP FORECASTS AND CAPITAL COST ESTIMATES (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ndtr09:207489

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.207489

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