Will Special Agricultural Safeguards Advance or Retard LDC Growth and Welfare? A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis

Agapi Somwaru and David Skully

No 331147, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: In the WTO Doha negotiations several developing countries have proposed special safeguards mechanisms [SSMs] for sensitive agricultural commodities. This study examines the potential magnitude and distribution of the welfare from allowing developing countries to establish [SSMs] for grains and oilseeds. It employs an inter-temporal general equilibrium model including 13 countries/regions and 7 commodity groups, based GTAP 5.2 database, to simulate the dynamic effects of imposing SSMs. The simulations indicate that allowing developing country SSMs for grains and oilseeds reduces the welfare gains of full agricultural liberalization, but the reduction in welfare is relatively modest: about 99% of the welfare gain of full liberalization is realized with SSM—that is, share of welfare gain foregone is about 1%. The relative welfare foregone is greatest for developing countries, and least for developed countries. Among developing regions, Asian countries (excluding China) forego the greatest relative welfare gain.

Keywords: Research Methods/Statistical Methods; Agricultural and Food Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 12
Date: 2003
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Working Paper: Will Special Agricultural Safeguards Advance or Retard LDC Growth and Welfare? A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331147

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