Food and Agricultural Markets at the Advent of the next WTO Round

Martina Brockmeier, Petra Salamon, Marianne Kurzweil and Claudia Herok

No 331165, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: The November 2001 declaration of the 4th Ministerial Conference in Doha provides the mandate for negotiations on a range of subjects, including agriculture. Negotiations on this topic began in early 2000 and are to end by 1 January 2005. A large number of governments have already submitted a negotiating proposal and besides aspects like special and differential treatment for developing countries and non-trade concerns, the classical themes market access, export subsidies and domestic support will again be high on the agenda. Analyzing a possible outcome of the WTO, we use the comparative-static general equilibrium GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model. To allow for deeper insight, the standard version of the model is accompanied by a more specific modeling of WTO related trade instruments like tariff rate quotas and limits on subsidized exports. Additionally, instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU, e.g. production quotas and EU-budget, are also implemented in greater detail. Due to the nature of these instruments the complementarity approach of Gempack 8.0 is used. Since full impact of possible WTO outcomes is expected to take place in 2012 a range of preparatory simulations is required including projections based on external forecasts on macroeconomic developments, Agenda 2000 and EU enlargement. Taking into account a post EU enlargement situation in 2012, different stylized WTO scenarios will be carried out reflecting proposals like cut of all import taxes, reduction of direct payments, abolishment of export subsidies and expansion of tariff rate quotas. In the simulations, GTAP Data Base Version 5.2 will be used to generate an aggregation of 10 agricultural sectors, 7 food sectors and 3 non-agricultural sectors as well as 10 regions including beneath others EU-27, USA and CAIRNS and five production factors. Expected findings will cover impacts on trade, production and prices, and will enable us to detect sensitive sectors and regions concerning the different proposals.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2003
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331165

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