The impact of a fall in tourism on the Balearic economy

Clemente Polo and Elisabeth Valle ()

No 331334, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: According to the Institute of Tourist Studies, the Balearic Islands Autonomous Community (CAIB) -a region with a just over one million inhabitants- received 9,5 million international arrivals out of the 52,1 million registered for the entire Spain in 2003. Although a rather impressive figure, it is 9.2% below the 10,5 million recorded in 1999. A look at the 1997 input-output table, shows the CAIB as a service oriented economy, highly specialized in the production of services for tourists. The main goal of this paper is to evaluate with alternative multisectoral models the impact on the CAIB economy of a 10% permanent fall in tourist demand. First, we estimate the impact of the reduction in nonresidents consumption using a rather standard input-output model. Then, we estimate its effects using an extended general linear model implemented with a Social Accounting Matrix elaborated by the authors. Finally, we use an applied (computable) general equilibrium model using alternative closure rules to those encountered in other regional studies.

Keywords: Public Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33
Date: 2005
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331334

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