The Impact of HIV on Total Factor Productivity

Zerihun G. Alemu, Terry Roe and Rodney B.W Smith

No 331456, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: This study investigates whether HIV prevalence rates impacts TFP growth. We construct a panel of data on general macroeconomic indicators and HIV prevalence rates for over 100 countries, for the years 1994 through 2002, and estimate the impact of HIV on TFP growth rates for each country. We find that HIV can have a large negative impact on factor productivity growth in Southern African countries. For example, factor productivity growth in Lesotho falls by up to 23%, and for South Africa factor productivity growth falls by up to 15%. We then investigate the potential impact of the disease on the economic growth of Lesotho and South Africa by calibrating a single sector, neoclassical model of economic growth with endogenous savings to the two countries. The models show that TFP effects can have large, negative impacts on both per capita GDP and aggregate GDP.

Keywords: Productivity Analysis; Health Economics and Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16
Date: 2006
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Working Paper: The Impact of HIV on Total Factor Productivity (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331456

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