Back to the Future: Dynamic Baselines in CGE Modeling

Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

No 331825, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: This paper describes the methodology used at the World Bank to develop dynamic scenarios using the Bank's global computable general equilibrium model. The dynamic CGE has been used in a number of contexts over the last 10 years including analysis of international trade policies, international migration, long-term development and structural change, the Bank's poverty forecast and more recently long-term commodity supply and prices and climate change scenarios. Though building dynamic scenarios requires significantly more exogenous inputs than the more standard comparative static analysis, it also leads to a richer set of policy questions that lie at the heart of many development issues.

Keywords: Research Methods/Statistical Methods; International Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331825

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