Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation

Claudio Morana

No 332210, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: What is the role of Önancial speculation in determining the real oil price? We Önd that while macroeconomic shocks have been the major upward driver of the real oil price since the mid 1980s, Önancial shocks have also sizably contributed since early 2000s, and at a much larger extent since mid 2000s. Despite Önancial shocks contributed with 44% out of the 65% real oil price increase over the period 2004-2010, the third oil price shock was a macro-Önancial episode: macroeconomic shocks actually largely accounted for the 2007-2008 oil price swing. While we then Önd support to the demand side view of real oil price determination, we also Önd a much larger role for Önancial shocks than previously noted in the literature.

Keywords: Financial Economics; Resource/Energy Economics and Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332210/files/5675.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation (2013)
Working Paper: Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation (2013)
Working Paper: Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation (2012)
Working Paper: Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332210

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().