Futures of agriculture and food systems: impacts on rural job dynamics in SSA

Mathilde Douillet and Carmen Estrades

No 332480, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: In the coming years, several dynamics of transformation of African agriculture and food systems are possible as a consequence of the rising food demand in Africa and worldwide, the growth of African cities, the impacts of climate change on the yields and that of the booming labor force. Although it is impossible to foresee the future path of agriculture in Africa before it unfolds, the aim of this paper is to shed lights on some of the dynamics at stake by using the global dynamic CGE model, MIRAGE, developed by CEPII and IFPRI, incorporating unemployment into the initial model and testing several options of its factor market specification. Our baseline scenario is based on the increase in global and African production as anticipated by the “World Agriculture Towards 2050” of the FAO and population and GDP growth by the CEPII towards 2050. We also explore different assumptions of technical changes in the African agricultural sector and global trade reforms, and compare their impact in terms of the level of agricultural production, volume of trade, availability of food, agricultural income, employment, management of natural resources and regional development.

Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development; Labor and Human Capital (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 12
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332480

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