Potential Economic Impact of a "Green Revolution" in Sub-Saharan Africa: a CGE analysis

Hasan Dudu, Cristina Vinyes and Emanuele Ferrari

No 332503, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: Africa, more specifically Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), largely missed out on the green revolution and hence is considered to have a large potential for a green revolution in the near future. Given this background, in this paper a global CGE Model is used to analyze the economy-wide effects of a potential ‘green revolution’ in SSA. Following many studies in the literature a potential green revolution is modelled as an increase in TFP, on the other hand, the uniqueness of this study is to introduce the observed and desired yield changes and let the model determine the required TFP change to attain these yield levels. Further, a stochastic yield change is introduced as a shock to the CGE model by using a Gaussian Quadrature approach. This way, instead of presenting only one point for a probable Green revolution one can analyse the effect of a green revolution under a whole possible set of yield changes. The preliminary results suggests that the effect on production is significant in all regions, even more so the wheat production in South African Development Community (DC) region and plant fibre production in Central Africa regions. The impact on international trade is highest for Eastern Africa while the highest GDP and welfare gain is observed in South African DC countries.

Keywords: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; International Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332503

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