On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty

Marcio Cruz and S. Amer Ahmed

No 332782, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: Changing population age-structures are shaping the trajectories of development in many countries, bringing both opportunities and challenges. Rapid population growth is set to continue in the poorest countries over the coming decades. At the same time, these countries will see sustained increases in the shares of their population that are of working-age, and these shifts have the potential to boost growth and poverty reduction. However, the sensitivity of growth, poverty reduction, and shared prosperity to these changes is unclear. This paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect growth and saving and estimates the association between changes in the share of working age population with growth and savings. In addition, the paper examines the implications of changes in age-structure on poverty and shared prosperity. An increase of one percentage point in the working-age population share is found to boost GDP per capita by more than one percent with similarly positive effects on savings and poverty reduction.

Keywords: Labor and Human Capital; Food Security and Poverty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Working Paper: On the impact of demographic change on growth, savings, and poverty (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332782

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