Economic and distributional Impacts of the EVFTA and CPTPP in Vietnam

Maryla Maliszewska, Maria Filipa Seara Pereira, Israel Osorio Rodarte and Zoryana Olekseyuk

No 333169, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: EVFTA will bring significant benefits to the Vietnamese economy through higher growth, greater trade and faster poverty reduction. The full implementation of EVFTA could increase Vietnam’s GDP by 2.4 percent, boost exports by 12 percent and lift an additional 0.1-0.8 million people out of poverty by 2030. When considering the implementation of EVFTA and CPTPP the GDP increase would reach to 3.2 percent. Exports with EVFTA and CPTPP would increase to 16%, lifting 0.2-1.2 million out of poverty. Both EVFTA and CPTPP will also help to close the gender wage gap by 0.15 percentage points, particularly for households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. In addition to implementing trade agreements, if Vietnam adopts complementary domestic reforms to raise productivity, its GDP could increase further by 6.8 percent by 2030— four percentage points more than the income gains from EVFTA alone.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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