Environmental Stressors Can Intensify the Impacts of Pandemics on Earth’s Natural Resources and Global Food Systems

Iman Haqiqi, Danielle S. Grogan, Marziyeh Bahalou Horeh, Jing Liu, Uris Lantz Baldos and Thomas Hertel

No 333278, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: This study estimates the likely impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic when combined with environmental stressors. We identify the conditions under which a combination of economic recession and drought conditions leads to intensified food insecurity. We also identify which regions are more influenced by other regions through changes in other parts of the world. We integrate SIMPLE (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment) with WBM (Water Balance Model). The WBM projections show changes in the hydrological supply of water resources and agronomic demand for water. The SIMPLE model provides agricultural production, food security, and caloric nutrition outcomes. It also determines the irrigation water demand around the world. The prices of crops, livestock, and processed food commodities are determined considering the international trade of agricultural products. In an interconnected world, water-scarce regions are expected to import water-intensive commodities from relatively water-abundant regions. However, the degree of scarcity depends on availability relative to demand. We consider the changes in water supply relative to the changes in water demand in case of water scarcity combined with the economic lockdown.

Keywords: Environmental; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333278

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