An introduction of GTEM-Food: A baseline calibration with a focus on food

Duy Nong, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Yingying Lu, Raymundo Marcos Martinez and Jeda Palmer
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Mason-D'Croz

No 333304, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: There is limited understanding of the level of impact on food systems globally, particularly the interaction between climate change and mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies. To address this limitation, and to improve future analysis of climate change and climate mitigation policies we have extended GTEM-C to become GTEM-Food. First, we used multiple data sources to update the model database with more agriculture and food sectors/commodities. Second, we updated the production and consumption structures for many food sectors and commodities. Finally, we revised and updated the baseline SSP2 GTEM-Food projections considering a new starting point and trends. Results show that most world output levels increase in 2014-2060, except coal and natural gas. Vegetable and fruit double their output level ($1434 billion) in 2060 compared to the level ($779 billion) in 2014. Dairy milk also follows the same pattern, reaching $1447 billion in 2060 compared to $797 billion in 2014. Cattle meat also increases significantly in 2014-60, reaching $1362 billion in 2060 relative to $709 billion in 2014. Coal-fired electricity substantially reclines from 8.6 million GWh in 2014 to 3.4 million GWh in 2060. Solar and geothermal power increase their output significantly in 2014-60 and become main sources of power by 2060, reaching 6.5 and 5.2 million GWh in 2060. From an Australian perspective, agricultural output increases by up to 68% in 2060 compared to the 2014 level. The ratio of food output relative to non-food keep constant in 2014-2060 at 0.043. Shares of agriculture sectors in Australia stay stable at 6.3%, while shares of agricultural emissions in Australia relative to the total Australian emissions increase from 25% in 2030 to 32% in 2060 because emissions from fossil-based electricity generation decline. In general, agricultural emissions in Australia only increase slightly reaching 108 MtCO2e in 2030 and 129 MtCO2e in 2060.

Keywords: Research; Methods/Statistical; Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333304

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