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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Brazilian Agricultural Sector

José Féres, Eustaquio Jose Reis and Juliana Simoes Speranza

No 108136, 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil from Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER)

Abstract: Este artigo tem por objetivo avaliar o impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a agricultura brasileira tanto em termos da rentabilidade agrícola quanto do preço da terra. Para este fim, são estimados dois modelos econométricos: o modelo de efeitos fixos, segundo a metodologia desenvolvida por Deschênes e Greenstone (2007), e o modelo de preços hedônicos proposto por Mendelsohn et al. (1994). Ambos os modelos são estimados utilizando dados de painel para os municípios brasileiros no período de 1970-1995. Os resultados das simulações sugerem que o impacto das mudanças climáticas no setor agrícola brasileiro será relativamente modesto no médio prazo. Contudo, estes impactos tendem a tornar-se significativamente mais severos no longo prazo--------------------------This paper aims at estimating the effects of climate change on the Brazilian agriculture both in terms of agricultural profitability and land values. To accomplish this task, we estimate two econometric models: the fixed-effects model proposed by Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) and the hedonic model proposed by Mendelsohn et al. (1994). Both models are estimated for a panel of municipalities covering the period 1970-1995. Simulation results suggest that the overall impact of climate change will be quite modest for the Brazilian agriculture in the medium term, but these impacts are considerably more severe in the long term.

Keywords: Environmental; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15
Date: 2008-07
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:108136

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.108136

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