CAN WE FORECAST THE PRICE OF HONEY?

Carl E. Shafer

No 24007, Faculty Paper Series from Texas A&M University, Department of Agricultural Economics

Abstract: While the long term trend in U. S. production has been downward, increased imports have been supplying the upward trend in U. S. honey consumption. Exceptionally high producer level prices during 1996 and 1997 were apparently due to lower world supplies, particularly as reflected in stocks. The recent large increases in imports and, to a lesser extent, stocks led to the softening in U. S. producer prices in 1997 while retail prices and margins remained firm. U. S. retail poundage sales, based on Nielsen data, remained robust, dropping only slightly in the face of a 40% increase in retail price between 1995 and 1997. The producer price for honey in 1998 will depend largely on three factors: (1) U. S. honey producers' response in terms of honey production, (2) the management of stocks in response to price expectations, and (3) the role of imports as part of total U. S. honey supply.

Keywords: Demand; and; Price; Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11
Date: 1998
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:tamufp:24007

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.24007

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