Comparative Analysis of World Market Projections with Special Regard to Wheat Prices

Thomas Heckelei, Elvira Krebs, Claus Mollmann and Martin von Lampe

No 18778, Discussion Papers from University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics

Abstract: This paper presents a short comparative analysis of USDA and FAPRI projections for world wheat market prices until 2005. The relevance of different model assumptions regarding assumed inflation, exchange rates, policy parameters as well as shifts in demand and production development are discussed. A subsequent section focuses on the problem of a "world market price concept" for evaluating the potential of unsubsidized EU cereal exports. The Annex provides more detailed information on model assumptions and a comparison of other projected values, also including agricultural products other than wheat. Dieses Diskussionspapier stellt eine kurze vergleichende Analyse aktueller USDA- und FAPRI- Projektionen von Weltmarktpreisen fur Weizen bis 2005 vor. Die Relevanz verschiedener Modellannahmen hinsichtlich Inflation, Wechselkurs, Politikparameter und Bestimmungsgrossen von Angebot und Nachfrage werden diskutiert. Einige Uberlegungen zur Problematik eines "Weltmarktpreiskonzeptes" bei der Abschatzung des Potentials unsubventionierter EU Getreideexporte schliessen sich an. Der Anhang stellt detailliertere Informationen zu Modellannahmen sowie den Vergleich weiterer projezierter Kennzahlen bereit, die auch andere Agrarprodukte einschliessen.

Keywords: Demand; and; Price; Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44
Date: 1998
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ubfred:18778

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18778

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