A Roller Coaster Ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price

Bernardina Algieri

No 145556, Discussion Papers from University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF)

Abstract: Over the last decade, commodity prices have registered substantial booms and busts marked by extreme volatility. Wheat in particular, one of the main non-oil commodities, has registered a roller-coaster in price levels which seems to be inconsistent with supply and demand fundamentals. To acutely investigate the drivers of wheat prices and quantify their impact, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been used. The exogenous variables have been distinguished into four groups: market-specific factors, broad macroeconomic determinants, speculative components, and weather variables. The quadriangulation of the determinants will enable us to better understand the movements in wheat price and identify the specific role of each component. The results show a mix of short and long term factors that are contributing to wheat price movements, and their effect should be taken into account in designing proper policy intervention to mitigate the negative impact of price shocks.

Keywords: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38
Date: 2013-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/145556/files/DP176.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ubzefd:145556

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.145556

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().