How Does Structural Change in the Global Soybean Market Affect the U.S. Price?

Gerald Plato and William Chambers

No 413452, Miscellaneous Publications from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Abstract: Expanded soybean production in South America means that the U.S. soybean price is increasingly affected by supply conditions there. This structural change has altered the relationships among U.S. soybean production, use, stocks, and price. Our analysis shows that South American production, combined with the U.S. carryover stocks-to-use ratio, provides a strong basis for forecasting the price received by U.S. soybean farmers. Based on our regression model, we estimate that, everything else held equal, a 1-percent increase in South American production decreases the U.S. price by about one-quarter percent, on average.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10
Date: 2004-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uersmp:413452

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.413452

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