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The Potential Effects of Increased Demand for U.S. Agricultural Exports on Metro and Nonmetro Employment

Steven Zahniser (), Tom Hertz (), Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer

No 262186, Economic Research Report from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Abstract: This report uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the economic effects of a hypothetical 10-percent increase in foreign demand for U.S. agri - cultural exports. This demand shift was found to result in a 6.7-percent increase in the volume of such exports, worth $9.7 billion at 2013 prices, and a net increase in total U.S. employment (all economic sectors) of about 41,500 jobs—above and beyond the nearly 1.1 million full-time civilian jobs that U.S. agricultural exports currently support. Some 40 percent of these new jobs are created in rural (nonmetropolitan) counties. Most parts of the agri-food sector (i.e., production agriculture plus food and beverage manufac - turing) would see an increase in employment, while employment in other trade-exposed industries—most notably non-food-and-beverage manufacturing and mining—would decrease. The agri-food sector’s share of regional employment is the main determi - nant of the percentage change in total regional employment in our simulation. Since the agri-food sector accounts for a larger share of nonmetro employment than of metro employment, growth in U.S. agricultural exports is of greater relative importance to the economic prosperity of nonmetro communities.

Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2017-04-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.262186

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