Implications of Vietnam’s Rice Export Limit for the Global and U.S. Rice Markets

Kayode Ajewole, Ethan Sabala, Jessie Lin and Michael E. Johnson

No 415932, Economic Research Report from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Abstract: In 2023, the Vietnamese Government announced plans to reduce annual rice exports to 4 million metric tons by 2030—a 50-percent reduction from its 2024/25 export volume of 8 million metric tons. Since Vietnam is the world’s second-largest rice exporter, surpassing Thailand in 2025 (USDA, FAS, 2026), this policy has the potential to increase volatility in global rice markets. A similar disruption occurred in July 2023 when India banned non-basmati white rice exports. After this ban, India’s average monthly exports (from August 2023 through June 2024) fell 33 percent from the August 2022 to June 2023 average, contributing to higher international rice prices from July 2023 to September 2024. This study employs the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model to estimate the potential impacts of Vietnam’s export restriction on global rice trade and the implications for U.S. rice exports. The results suggest that Vietnam’s rice quota alone is unlikely to significantly affect U.S. production or exports. However, if other major rice exporters, such as India, enact export restrictions in response to rising prices, the United States could gain market share and experience larger export increases. Under such a scenario, U.S. rice exports and production increase by 13.5 and 3.9 percent, respectively.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2026-10
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uersrr:415932

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.415932

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