One, Two, and Three Line Segment "Straw Man" Models: Soybean Yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

Jeanne L. Sebaugh

No 321270, Staff Reports from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Abstract: All of the straw man models attempt to explain differences in yields over time by fitting trend lines to the yield data. The one line segment straw man model, simple linear regression, describes a uniform increase in yields over time. The two and three line segment straw man models allow the rate of change in yields to vary over the time period. The performance of the three models in predicting soybean yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana is compared based on eight model characteristics. There is little difference between the three models in relation to seven of the characteristics: objectivity, consistency with scientific knowledge, adequacy, timeliness, minimum costs, simplicity, and accurate current measures of modeled yield reliability. The one line model performs somewhat better than the other straw man models on the remaining characteristics, yield indication reliability.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 64
Date: 1981-05
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/321270/files/AGESS810514.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uerssr:321270

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.321270

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Staff Reports from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().