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Simulating Brazilian Electricity Demand Under Climate Change Scenarios

Ian Trotter (), José Gustavo Féres, Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø and Lavínia Rocha de Hollanda

No 208689, Working Papers in Applied Economics from Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Departamento de Economia Rural

Abstract: Long-term load forecasts are important for planning the development of the electric power infrastructure. We present a methodology for simulating ensembles of daily long-term load forecasts for Brazil under climate change scenarios. For certain applications, it is important to choose an ensemble approach in order to estimate the (conditional) probability distribution of the load. High temporal resolution is necessary in order to preserve key features of the electricity demand that are particularly important in the face of increasing penetration of intermittent renewable power generation.

Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-for
Date: 2015-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ufvdwp:208689

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.208689

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