Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Methods: An Application to Non-Normally Behaving Data on Selected U.S. Sugar-Related Markets

Ronald A. Babula and Douglas Newman

No 15878, Working Paper ID Series from United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries

Abstract: The methods of the cointegrated vector autoregression/error correction (VAR/VEC) model are applied to monthly U.S. markets for sugar and for sugar-using markets for confectionary, soft drink, and bakery products. Primarily a methods paper, Johansen and Juselius' methods are applied, with a special focus on addressing well-known issues that preclude statistically normal behavior, and that confront the modelled sugar-based data. In so doing, we illustrate the effectiveness and the benefits of modelling this sugar-related set of markets as a cointegrated system. Perhaps for the first time, cointegrated VEC model results are used to estimate crucial policy-relevant market parameters that drive the markets, as well as to illuminate the dynamic nature of the relationships linking these sugar-based markets.

Keywords: Industrial Organization; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uitcoi:15878

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.15878

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