Consumer Behavioral Responses to a Foodborne Illness Outbreak: Evidence from Foot-Traffic Data

Prayash Pathak and Elton Mykerezi

No 412820, Staff Papers from University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics

Abstract: We examine how consumers respond to a foodborne-illness outbreak in restaurants using high-frequency, location-level foot-traffic data. Exploiting the 2026 Cyclospora outbreak linked to Taco Bell – a rare setting combining a single named restaurant brand, a single named supplier, and an explicit five-state geographic boundary – we trace daily visits to Taco Bell, McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Qdoba locations before and after official CDC/FDA attribution. Taco Bell visits fell by about 14% more in the five initially implicated states than in comparison states following attribution, while a broader Taco Bell-specific decline of nearly 19% relative to McDonald’s emerged even in states with no confirmed exposure; we find no evidence of spillovers to Chipotle or Qdoba, so avoidance stayed concentrated on the implicated brand. Avoidance began before formal attribution and intensified sharply afterward, attenuating to within 5% of baseline by mid-August. We also find suggestive evidence that the decline was smaller and recovery faster among stores in lower-income neighborhoods, consistent with more limited substitution options, while loyal and casual visitors responded similarly. Combining these visit estimates with store-level transaction data, we find Taco Bell locations in the five implicated states lost roughly $600,000 to $1.3 million in revenue over the eight-day primary post-attribution window, and about $1.4 million cumulatively, with none of the loss coming from lower average spending per visit. These results provide some of the first direct estimates, measured in observed consumer visits and store revenue of the speed, recovery, geography, brand and sector spillovers and economic magnitude of consumer avoidance following a foodborne-illness outbreak.

Keywords: Food; Consumption/Nutrition/Food; Safety (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:umaesp:412820

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.412820

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