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Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Michael Clements

No 269742, Economic Research Papers from University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Abstract: We ask whether the di§erent types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of declines in output with the probabilities implied by the probability distributions. When the expected associations between these di§erent types of forecasts do not hold for some idividuals, we consider whether the discrepancies we observe are consistent with rational behaviour by agents with asymmetric loss functions.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-10-16
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uwarer:269742

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269742

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