STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATES AND PRICE DISCOVERY IN SELECTED COMMODITY MARKETS

Hector O. Zapata and T. Randall Fortenbery

No 12637, Staff Papers from University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics

Abstract: The temporal relationship between Chicago corn and soybean cash prices, nearby futures prices, and interest rates is examined using daily 1980-1989 data. Johansen cointegration tests suggest joint movement of the three series over the data period considered. In addition, analyses of individual crop years, which is consistent with previous work, shows co-movement between cash, futures, and interest rates in years when bivariate cointegration between cash and futures prices was not found. The results provide initial empirical evidence that a potential limitation of previous research in the study of cash- futures simple efficiency has been the exclusion of the interest rate as a common stochastic factor explaining equilibrium in models of cash and futures prices.

Keywords: Demand; and; Price; Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 1995
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Related works:
Journal Article: Stochastic Interest Rates and Price Discovery in Selected Commodity Markets (1996)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:wisagr:12637

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12637

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